There's a popular book by bombastic television stock picker James Cramer called Getting Back to Even.
This is not a plug. Lord knows, Cramer doesn't need the publicity. But it's a good title and a fairly universal sentiment among investors who lost half or more of their savings in the Great Recession.
The last 18 months have been good for investors in stocks. Just about everything has gone up since the Dow bottomed out at around 7550 in November 2008. But a better indicator might be three years ago, June 2007, when stock market indexes were near all-time highs and many of us were still deluding ourselves into thinking we were, if not rich, not poor either.
So if your idea of "even" is 2007 or 2006, are you there yet?
Not likely, based on the market performance of flagship Memphis-based Fortune 500 companies like FedEx and International Paper. Not even close if your treasure was in bank stocks like First Horizon, Regions Financial, or SunTrust.
But you're even and then some if you were lucky enough to buy-and-hold in recession-proof stocks like AutoZone, Cummins, and Nike. And the brightest diamond of all in the "stocks of local interest" in the newspaper is Kirklands, a specialty retailer of home décor products based and founded in Jackson, Tennessee. The stock is up more than 500 percent since June 2007.
Few if any investors, of course, choose only local or regional stocks. Hometown loyalty is more likely to apply to sports. But employees of such companies are likely to have shares in their retirement accounts or get them via profit sharing, and executives get a large part of their compensation in stock options. So "stocks of local interest" has some value as a Memphis wealth index that has an impact on everything from housing construction to club memberships.
So who's even and who isn't?
Our flagship company, FedEx, is widely seen as a barometer of the national and global economy. At around $90 in May, it was well off its price of $111 two years ago.
Financial companies are the site of the worst carnage because of their exposure to subprime housing mortgages and construction. First Horizon, Regions, and SunTrust are still trading at less than one-third of their all-time highs.
Pinnacle and Delta Airlines are coming back but flying low compared to three years ago. Boyd Gaming, the parent company of Sam's Town casino in Tunica, is down 75 percent from its high. Thomas & Betts, the Memphis-based maker of electrical instruments, is still down about a third.
The stalwarts are in disparate places. There's AutoZone, which profits when people keep their old cars longer and do their own repairs; Nike, the king of athletic footwear; Cummins, the engine manufacturer; and Kirklands, the specialty retailer.
If you own them, maybe you're even. Otherwise, not likely.